Is 2010 the Year to Purchase a House?

Is 2010 the year to buy a house? It certainly looks that way: After a steep run-up in prices during the first half of the decade, home values have plummeted back to 2003 levels. Fixed mortgage rates are sitting near record lows. And the foreclosure epidemic—while painful for many home owners—has created some wonderful opportunities for bargain hunters. If that’s not enough, Uncle Sam is handing out thousands of dollars in tax credits to nearly all first-time buyers and the bulk of existing home owners who close a purchase by June.

But while the 2010 outlook appears inviting, there’s one key catch. You need to have a stable job. The economy is showing signs of life, but the unemployment rate is already at 10 percent and expected to go higher. And while those mortgage rates are attractive, buying a house makes sense only if you can bank on your income stream. So before you consider purchasing a home, take a hard look at your job, your company, and your industry.

After more than three years of falling, real estate values have shown signs of stabilization in recent months. At the national level, home prices slid nearly 9 percent between the third quarter of 2008 and the same period this year, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price report. That’s a notable improvement from the second quarter’s nearly 15 percent annual drop and the first quarter’s 19 percent decline. This improvement will give way to a bottom in home prices—finally!—in 2010, but not before additional declines. It’s projected that home prices will hit bottom in the third quarter of 2010 after logging a peak-to-trough decline of roughly 37 percent, based on the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index.

With prices still falling, mortgage rates remaining historically attractive, and additional homes hitting the market in the form of foreclosures, the dynamics of the real estate market will continue to favor buyers over sellers in 2010. That means those looking to buy a home next year should not feel pressured to act impulsively. You don’t need to have a sense of urgency, but understand that as time progresses the balance of power as we get into 2010 is going to slowly but surely shift away from buyers. It’s is not going to be a strong seller’s market, but it will be more evenly distributed as the year goes on. Data from the real estate firm Zillow show that home buyers are already losing the leverage they once enjoyed. While home buyers landed a median discount of 4.6 percent off listing prices in January, the size of the gap fell to 2.7 percent by October. Expect this gap to close further as 2010 marches on.

Amid falling home prices and a nasty labor market, roughly 1 in every 7 mortgages was either past due or in foreclosure by the end of the third quarter—the highest delinquency rate in the 37-year history of the Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Delinquency Survey. Two factors are expected to drive delinquencies even higher next year. First, nearly 1 in 4 homeowners currently owes more on their mortgage than the property is worth, which increases their odds of default. And secondly, the national unemployment rate—which already stands at 10 percent—will peak at about 10.5 percent in the first quarter of 2010. Additional job losses mean more borrowers won’t be able to pay their mortgage bills.

Perhaps if you were thinking of purchasing a home within the next few years, you should consider taking action now. Mortgage, tax, and prices are on the rise, and you can potentially avoid all the unfortunate changes that are in the works for the real estate market.